CPIC (601601): Channel structure with outstanding performance in line with expectations remains outstanding
Life insurance premiums increased slightly, and the company’s comprehensive investment income was considerable. The company’s net profit in 19Q1 was 5.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +46.
1%, in line with expectations, with an annualized return on total investment of 0.
4 points to 4.
6%, the net investment yield rose by 0.
2 points to 4.
Other comprehensive income is 720,000 yuan (only 400 million yuan in the same period last year), and the estimated annualized comprehensive investment return rate is about 6.
86%, considerable room for performance growth.
Life insurance premiums totaled 深圳桑拿网 929 trillion, a year-on-year increase of +2.
8%, the start factor dragged down the overall growth rate.
The company will continue its transformation in 20192.
0 strategy, EPS is expected to be 2 in 2019-21.
56 yuan, 3.
16 yuan and 3.
92 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Life insurance new orders are under pressure, and the channel structure remains outstanding. As the company started late, its agents paid premiums of 15.5 billion in the first year, YoY-18.
1%, new orders accounted for -5.
4% to 89%.
However, China Jiao Tong increased sharply by 72%, realizing a premium of 19 million, which drove the decline in total new orders to narrow to 13.
Under the pressure of new orders, the renewal pull effect appeared in advance, with renewal premiums of 68.7 billion yuan, YoY + 11%, and personal customer business accounted for about 76.
8%, a significant increase of 6 points each year.
Agent channel accounted for +2.
6 points to 96.
3%, the channel structure continues to be excellent.
Property insurance is growing steadily, and auto insurance pressure is expected to ease the release of CPIC P & C Insurance’s premiums in 19Q1 to achieve 35.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of +12.
7%; of which, the insurance premium of auto insurance is 237 ppm, which is +6 compared with the same period of last year.
3%, non-auto insurance premiums of 117 ppm, +28.
The decline in new car sales in March narrowed, and policy expectations were expected to boost market demand. The improvement of the new car sales environment promoted the growth of auto insurance premiums. The introduction of commercial car fare reforms is expected to improve the cost rate.
Non-car insurance maintains strong growth momentum. We expect the proportion of property insurance business to rise steadily and become a new growth point for performance.
The impact of the plan fee accrual that caused the tax rate to rise sharply has been basically released in the third quarter of last year, and the 19Q1 comprehensive tax rate has been changed from 10pct to 28%.
The efficiency of asset allocation has improved, the release of reserves has boosted performance, and the equity market has actively increased the allocation of equity assets.
1pct to 6.
At the same time, in the first quarter of the period when interest rates fell, the proportion of bond investment was reduced2.
3pct to 44%.
We predict that this year’s equity market will catalyze the company’s continued growth in performance, and the rapid upward development of interest rates since the second quarter will ease the pressure on reallocation of solid income assets.
The company withdrew 598 trillion in insurance liability reserves in 19Q1, YoY-7.
1%, mainly due to the negative growth of new orders, but the drawdown of reserves accounted for a large increase of 6pct in the current premium income. We believe that the release of reserves has boosted performance.
Bullish on “Transformation 2.”
“0” strategic prospects, maintaining a “buy” rating company’s strategic transformation2.
0 continued to advance, the painful period of opening the door has passed, and the low base in the second and third quarters is expected to achieve business development beyond expectations. The previous profit forecast is continued, and the EVPS is expected to be 43 in 2019-21.
62 yuan, 51.
10 yuan and 59.
70 yuan, corresponding P / EV is 0.
71x and 0.
We maintain its 20191.
1xP / E, target price range 43.
98 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: The advancement of the insurance business is weaker than expected, and the downward interest rate brings potential risk of 北京夜生活 spread damage. The fluctuation of the equity market leads to the uncertainty of investment income growth.